Donald
Trump’s victory in the US presidential election ushers in an America
that will swashbuckle through the world like brawny sailors on shore
leave.
We
can expect his administration to be an emotional whirlwind of guttural,
visceral attacks hurled spontaneously, rather than four years of
measured, calculated approaches anchored in deeply grounded ideas about
the workings of statecraft and a rules-based international order.
“America first”, he swears, is his lodestar.
His
last term as president and campaign speeches this year suggest he will
be unpredictable, erratic, imperial, discursive and less than coherent,
with trademark chauvinism and caustic diatribes. Frequent purges of
staff will leave his administration unnerved.
We can expect
greater isolationism
in favour of bilateral, outcome-based deals that promise more than they
deliver. No more free rides for allies. Personal vendettas will be
fused with nationalism. Facts will become malleable artifices. His wrath
will know few bounds, and his arsenal will use sticks, not carrots. He
will seek capitulation not cooperation. His rise signals the end of
America’s global leadership after World War II.
The
election’s decisive results will embolden him with support from the
Republican-controlled Senate and seemingly the House of Representatives.
The more extreme voices in his camp will dominate. His dark world view
is a Dante-esque inferno – ruthless titans battle amid legions of
enemies.
To survive, America must be all guile and guts, and relentless in its offence. Friends can quickly become foes.
Donald Trump secures enough Electoral College votes to win 2024 US presidential election
Trump’s immediate agenda is grandiose: show China America is in charge, end Russia’s war against Ukraine
within 24 hours of taking office, and bring peace to the Middle East.
Trump has
vowed
to impose tariffs of at least 60 per cent on Chinese imports and to
terminate China’s most favoured nation trading status. Tariff is “the
most beautiful word in the dictionary”,
he has said. Last year, Chinese companies
exported US$500 billion in goods to the United States, about 15 per cent of the value of all its exports.
He may tighten export controls on advanced technologies. The day after his victory, the offshore
yuan fell
by as much as 1.3 per cent against the US dollar, the largest one-day
drop since October 2022. Greater volatility will plague China’s markets
during his term.
Given
his animosity towards multilateralism, expect him to move away from
President Joe Biden’s security partnerships with Asian countries to
contain China. He is likely to continue military aid for Taiwan if
Taipei ramps up military spending and plans to counter any threat from
Beijing to blockade Taiwan with paralysing tariffs.
But
tariffs and other trade barriers have significant consequences that
underscore the interdependence of the world’s two largest economies. For
Tesla, run by
key Trump supporter Elon Musk,
China accounted for half of its vehicle sales and a fifth of its
production capacity – the Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla’s largest
manufacturing plant.
The Tesla Gigafactory in Lingang, Shanghai, seen on September 26, 2023. Photo: AP
Similar
entanglements were reflected in the latest US corporate reports, with
performance in China weighing heavily on earnings trajectories. DuPont,
for instance, said quarterly sales for its semiconductor business jumped
by more than 20 per cent due largely to China’s growing demand.
US
semiconductor companies will struggle if China cuts off access to
critical minerals. Trump will find that such adverse consequences will
undercut the economic boom he believes protectionism will fuel. Voters
see him as more capable of running the economy than Kamala Harris. He
may quickly find opinions souring as the fallout hits.
To
end the Ukraine war, Trump vowed to act even before he is sworn in on
January 20. He has said he would settle it in a day and before entering
the White House. Meanwhile, he has criticised Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky’s repeated requests for US aid, saying: “It never
ends.” He also said he has warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that
“if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even
going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of
fricking Moscow”.
Former
security advisers to Trump advocate tying weapons for Ukraine with
Zelensky’s commitment to talk to Moscow. Russia could be enticed to
negotiate if Ukraine’s Nato entry is delayed. The current front lines
could serve as a starting point to
negotiate new boundaries, the aides argue.
That
leaves open the question of Trump’s relationship with Putin, one that
has US allies in Europe unsettled. He has warned fellow members of Nato
that unless they meet defence spending obligations, the US would not
abide by the mutual defence pact to protect them from Russia’s attacks.
“I would not protect you,” he
said in February. “In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want.”
Another Trump priority is peace in the Middle East. “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” he
said
in April. Yet he appears to back Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s hardline policies. Trump has no vision of a peace deal.
Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests his second term will be much like his first, only swayed by more extreme voices.